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Here's the deal:

The USofA needs to beat Ghana, assuming our boys do it... Here are the advancement scenarios -

1. Italy defeats the Czech Republic.

2. Italy ties the Czech Republic 0-0 or 1-1 AND the United States beats Ghana by at least four goals.

3. Italy ties the Czech Republic 2-2 or with a higher score AND the United States beats Ghana by five or more goals.

4. Italy ties the Czech Republic 2-2 or with a higher score AND the United States beats Ghana by four goals AND the U.S. team scores at least three goals more than the Czechs do in their tie.

5. The Czech Republic beats Italy AND the total combined margin of victory for the Americans and Czechs is six or more.

6. The Czech Republic beats Italy AND the total combined margin of victory for the Americans and Czechs is five AND the U.S. team scores at least three goals more than the Italians do in their loss.

7. The Czech Republic beats Italy AND the total combined margin of victory for the Americans and Czechs is five AND the U.S. team scores exactly two more goals than the Italians do in their loss AND the Americans win a drawing of lots by FIFA.


My favorite is number 7... drawing lots? Beautiful.

Of course considering the fact that we Yanks have yet to actaully score a goal in this World Cup (the lone goal against the Italians was scored by the Italians and the later goal by Beaser of course did not count), I think we should play for scenario numero uno.

... or just beat Ghana by 8 or 9 and not worry about the other game ... (which, as we just discussed is impossible. Especially considering our greatest scoring threat, Eddie Johnson, has - post-injury - reverted to his Pre FC Dallas "Dallas Burn" Era all promise and no product type play.)



Special thanks to, of all folks, The Canadian Press (eh?) for the US World Cup Advancement Scenarios.

Well, I am certainly glad we got that all cleared up. Let's just win and hope the Azzurri come through for us.

Damn right! Go AZZURRI!!!!!!!!!!!!! (And, um, yeah... Go US, beat the poop out of Ghana.)

In other words we are in some serious trouble here but there is hope. What sucks is Italy has no incentive to go for the throat and win the match. If they can manage a tie, they still win the group and are away from playing Brazil in the second round. Meanwhile, the czechs are content to play for a tie since the US needs to make up 4 goals to catch them on goal differential.

Yes, but the Czech will not be content with a tie, they will be going for the win in order to avoid Brazil. Thusly, the Italians can't merely play for a tie, they have to attack. Our only hope is that it's not a late goal to tie it.

me@smu wrote:In other words we are in some serious trouble here but there is hope. What sucks is Italy has no incentive to go for the throat and win the match. If they can manage a tie, they still win the group and are away from playing Brazil in the second round. Meanwhile, the czechs are content to play for a tie since the US needs to make up 4 goals to catch them on goal differential.

Not true. Nobody wants to play Brazil. So Italy will be trying to win. And if Italy and Czech tie, Ghana can pass Czech up with a win over the US.

So, because of the Ghana game, everyone in the group has reasons to go for the win.

IF we can win our match, we stand a pretty good chance of going through. But this will be a very difficult match to win.

I would love to see Boca and Gooch in the middle with Beasley at left D, but I don't think Arena will experiment like that at this stage. According to the presser today, he has really been playing Boca as a left back all throughout training, so it seems doubtful that he will pull him inside.

I know I am about to get my hat handed to me because I am a soccer idiot but here goes............I don't see our team having an identity. Brazil - dazzling one on one players who are unbelievably fast, Germany - huge team that just bullies you, Mexico - beat the hell out of you.........We act like Sybil - too many personalities playing different types of games all at the same time. I wonder if it is because our players growing up play for British, German, Middle East, South American ex-pats who all teach "their" brand of soccer????????? I think we need to figure out what is the "American" brand of soccer is going to be. Ok, let the "education" begin............

JasonB wrote:
Not true. Nobody wants to play Brazil. So Italy will be trying to win. And if Italy and Czech tie, Ghana can pass Czech up with a win over the US.


I would love to see Boca and Gooch in the middle with Beasley at left D, but I don't think Arena will experiment like that at this stage. According to the presser today, he has really been playing Boca as a left back all throughout training, so it seems doubtful that he will pull him inside.

I believe that everyone will obviously go for the win, however, point was that push come to shove with Italy all they need is the tie to escape Brazil. They are not going to take the chances that alot of times are needed to get a goal and the win.

Honestly, I would love to see Eddie Johnson get a crack in the game, I just like his pace and think he has the touch to change a game (even if he hasn't shown it in months). I am done with Demarcus...I couldn't believe he had the audacity to just walk through the motions on the pitch after his teammates had run themselves into the ground for 75 minutes before his entrance. If his game is speed, then for god's sake try running a little bit.

Finally thought, would be interested to see John O'Brien play. He actually looked decent in the run up to the cup and hope he is game and mentally fit to take it at Ghana.

I am no expert but having watch the US for a while now, I am actually pleased with the progress of the national sides skill. Back in '90 or '94 we were treated to a us game plan of kick the ball up the sides and pray that our team could get on it and maybe get a cross for a shot. And sweet jesus don't ask us to take anyone one on one or play short passes because we couldn't.

Now adays most of the time we actually build up in the mid-field and have become fairly adept at the short triangle passing attack to get a man in space. Not to mention, Dempsey, Reyna, Donovan and others are taking people one on one and occasionally making them look foolish. That is the future of the game, the short accurate quick passing and no longer the lumbering giants...take a peek at Germany this cup and it doesn't resemble Germany of old at all.

friarwolf wrote:I know I am about to get my hat handed to me because I am a soccer idiot but here goes............I don't see our team having an identity. Brazil - dazzling one on one players who are unbelievably fast, Germany - huge team that just bullies you, Mexico - beat the hell out of you.........We act like Sybil - too many personalities playing different types of games all at the same time. I wonder if it is because our players growing up play for British, German, Middle East, South American ex-pats who all teach "their" brand of soccer????????? I think we need to figure out what is the "American" brand of soccer is going to be. Ok, let the "education" begin............

It is funny that you mention this. One of the great things about America is that we are a true melting pot. We absorb things from different cultures and turn them into something better.

The same thing is happening in soccer. American soccer is in the process of developing a personality, and in my mind it is quite exciting and will keep us in the top order on the world stage for a long time. Our style is going to develop into a side that has the physicality on defense of the European teams (Gooch, Bocanegra) with the flair and speed of south american teams on offense (Convey, Donovan, Beasley, Dempsey, and in the future, Nguyen and Adu). It is a terrific mix of style, and will prove to be very successful in the world cups to come.

me@smu wrote:

JasonB wrote:
Not true. Nobody wants to play Brazil. So Italy will be trying to win. And if Italy and Czech tie, Ghana can pass Czech up with a win over the US.


I would love to see Boca and Gooch in the middle with Beasley at left D, but I don't think Arena will experiment like that at this stage. According to the presser today, he has really been playing Boca as a left back all throughout training, so it seems doubtful that he will pull him inside.

I believe that everyone will obviously go for the win, however, point was that push come to shove with Italy all they need is the tie to escape Brazil. They are not going to take the chances that alot of times are needed to get a goal and the win.

Honestly, I would love to see Eddie Johnson get a crack in the game, I just like his pace and think he has the touch to change a game (even if he hasn't shown it in months). I am done with Demarcus...I couldn't believe he had the audacity to just walk through the motions on the pitch after his teammates had run themselves into the ground for 75 minutes before his entrance. If his game is speed, then for god's sake try running a little bit.

Finally thought, would be interested to see John O'Brien play. He actually looked decent in the run up to the cup and hope he is game and mentally fit to take it at Ghana.

Damarcus is a much more consistant defensive player than he is on offense. He should be used at left back, especially with the number of quality outside midfielders we have coming up in the youth ranks.

O'Brien is a great player when healthy. The problem is that if you pair him and Reyna in the middle, you don't have that pure "work rate" guy to run around and clean stuff up. That was a very important role played my Mastro, and his absence will hurt.

Italy has to go for the win, because if Ghana beats the US, and Italy ties, then Ghana would actually win the group with 6 points vs 5.

As silly as it seems, it is probably in the best interest of the US to keep the game 0-0 at halftime and try to pull a goal out in the second half. If the US goes ahead early, then the "handshake draw" between Czech and Italy may go into effect, if the Czechs don't care about having to face Brazil.

A tie would make it mathematically more difficult for the U.S., but the risk obviously is that Ghana could spoil the fun for both of them by beating the U.S. Both teams have risks if they tie and both teams have risks if they lose. The only thing that makes everything safe for them is victory. Who knows what will happen tomorrow? The U.S. just needs to play all out and hope to score some goals and do so in bunches. If they win 4-0, then its up to the other teams to deal with them. I just wish we had lost to the Czechs 1-0. It would make things a whole lot easier.

so basically we are screwed in every possible way

So they just took any confusion out of this for us by handing us our butts.

What a disappointing World Cup for our side. One goal? We only scored one ####ing goal? I am not sure if the problem is with the coaching, the current crop of players, the experience and/or style of American players, or what, but I hope that USA Soccer looks long and hard in the mirror and makes sure that we have a team that can compete in 2010 (assuming we qualify). We have a world class player in Freddy Adu in the pipeline. Let's hope they bring him along right.