Big10Ponyfan wrote:PonyPride,
On a scale of 1 to 10, what do you give our national championship chances?
Ooooh -- tough call.
Put me down for a 4. That might sound low, but winning the thing (obviously) is extremely difficult. When the Ponies spent most of the year ranked first in the country a few years ago, I saw many of the top teams in the country play, and to say SMU was the most talented team in the country that year is beyond argument. That team (Diego Walsh, Luchi Gonzalez, Mishu Fahim, Carl Bussey, etc.) was absolutely loaded .... and St. John's walked into Ford Stadium and beat them in the NCAA Tournament. Because of the very nature of the sport, soccer is a game in which a team with a lead -- even a team with inferior talent -- can pack the defense back into its own end and protect a lead. Not always, of course, but it can be done. So even the most talented team in the country, as SMU was, can have difficulty playing catch-up if an early goal or two ends up in its own net. In my mind, 4 is a very high rating. Too many things can go wrong that derail a team's chances. An injury or a fluke goal or an ejection can end a team's season.
Reasons I like SMU's chances:
1. Schellas Hyndman. Best coach in the country. Yes, I'm biased as hell, because I know him and like him, and I've covered his team for nearly 20 years. But the fact that he guided Eastern Illinois to the NCAA final and has done so much at SMU is impossible to ignore. He not only understands the game inside and out, he also can tell you what the opponent is thinking, what the officials are thinking, etc., more than any coach I've ever met in any sport. He's a great coach who does things the right way. He believes in discipline, and holds his players accountable for the way they carry themselves on and off the field. He has turned down more lucrative offers to coach elsewhere in order to stay and bring a championship to SMU. He believes in the university to such an extent that he's able to recruit top players to SMU, even when other schools can offer nicer facilities (which are being improved here) and sometimes more scholarship money. If there's such a thing as karma, it has to play into this, because Coach Hyndman deserves a national championship.
2. Defense wins championships, right? This year's defense is better than last year's defense, and it's made up basically of the same guys. Mynor Gonzalez and Jay Needham are the old geezers in the back, and their technical skill and soccer intelligence is vital to the defensive performance. Gonzalez rarely talks on the field, and neither makes a flashy play when a simple pass will do the job. Their maturity and cerebral approach to defense clearly has helped the emergence of Ryan Mirsky and Daniel Lopez, sophomores who represent the anchors of next year's defense. Senior goalkeeper Matt Wideman, as everyone knows, has a stranglehold on the Conference USA Defensive Player of the Week honors, and has deserved it every time. He's the goalie equivalent of Gonzalez: not that big, not flashy, but amazingly consistent and capable of the spectacular save (in 19 years of covering SMU soccer, I've never seen a Pony 'keeper with his ability to twist in mid-air in reaction to a deflected shot and knock it over the crossbar. He literally has saved several SMU wins this year. I shudder to think how good this guy would be if he wasn't "too small."
Two wild cards on defense: (A) defensive midfielder Ben Shuleva can, at times, play like a fifth defender. He also can play like a middle linebacker on the soccer field, in that he's an extremely physical player who can absolutely crunch an opponent into submission. But make no mistake: this guy is not some renegade thug who's out there just looking for a leg-breaking tackle. He's very smart with the ball, distributes quickly and accurately to teammates and never seems caught out of position. For those PonyFans who have been around long enough, think Bryan Thompson with better speed and a wider mean streak. He's an invaluable addition to the team, bringing an edge that the Ponies seemed to lack at times last year. (B) Adrian Chevannes is emerging as a star forward. But when he transferred to SMU, he came as a defender. He took last year off, during which he got bigger and appears to have gotten faster. When SMU was nursing a 1-0 lead in a physical, emotional game against Cal, Coach Hyndman pushed Chevannes back occasionally to help out the defense. He and Mirsky made the Ponies much bigger on the defensive end, and he added significant speed and physical presence to the back. His best spot clearly is up front, but if needed, he still can be very productive in the back.
3. Youth: a few years ago, when the Florida Marlins won the World Series, Josh Beckett told a national media horde that his team might be too young to realize what was going on. Sure enough, they went out and won. This team has that same sort of feel. Yes, there are veterans like Needham and Gonzalez and Chase Wileman and Scott Corbin and Dario Saintus and Wideman who have been through the wars before. They are there to mentor their younger teammates, to help them realize what to expect. So many of the Ponies' prominent players -- forward Paulo da Silva, midfielder Bruno Guarda, forward Scott Geppert, Lopez, Mirsky, many key reserves -- are young guys. Coach Hyndman recruits guys who have played at very high levels before they got here, so it's not like they don't understand the game. But at times, there's a value in having that brash bravado of youth, the young player who knows he's just as good as the opponent -- even a highly decorated senior. The Ponies seem to have that look this year.
4. Experience: getting to College Cup (soccer's Final Four) last year was amazing. That team had no business getting that far, and overachieved. This year, the expectations rose, both because of the College Cup experience and because of additions of players like Chevannes, Shuleva, Geppert, freshman Leone Cruz, etc. Therefore, every team the Ponies have played has made the SMU game its game of the year. Even in games the Ponies have won (which is all of them, if you take away the "own goal" that forced a tie with New Mexico), teams have come out firing. Brown came to Westcott Field, and figured that after beating a decent-if-not-great Tulsa team Friday, they might have a chance against SMU. They came out very aggressively, but SMU didn't panic. The Ponies stayed within the gameplan, and once they took the lead, the floodgates opened. SMU absolutely ran Brown off the field. Every team is going to use SMU as a benchmark opponent, and the out-of-conference schedule (Brown, Cal, Indiana, St. Louis, etc) has been brutal. The Ponies will be much more battle-tested when this year's tournament rolls around, and coupled with the increase in talent, should have a very good chance to go deep in the NCAAs, even back to College Cup (in St. Louis this year). There's no real reason the Ponies can't win it all. I'm certainly not predicting they will -- way too many variables remain -- but the season is setting up well, at least so far.
If SMU isn't the best team in the country, I'd say that title goes to Clemson. I've seen them play, and know a journalist who covers them (and really understands soccer), and I'm convinced Clemson has a terrific team. Maryland also (obviously) is very strong, despite losing the national player of the year to MLS last year. All bias aside, SMU looks like the best of the bunch.